Cyclone damage assessment considering the non-stationarity and temporal correlation of cyclone processes
报告人：Dr .Hao Zhang （School of Civil Engineering, the University of Sydney, NSW, Australia）
时间：2017年1月15日 10:00 am
Severe tropical cyclones in coastal areas have caused enormous human and economic losses. The intensity and frequency of future cyclones may increase due to the potential impact of climate change. Due to common underlying climatological causes, interrelations may also exist between successive cyclone events.
The steady increase in population and the associated wealth in coastal areas suggests that the risk of even larger human and economic losses will increase in the future. Residential building construction is particularly vulnerable to cyclones. Cyclone damage assessment must be conducted under a probability-based framework, taking into account the randomness arising from both the inherent uncertainty of cyclone process and the model uncertainty associated with the mathematical representation of cyclone damage (vulnerability model). This presentation summarizes the state-of-the-art of assessment methods for cyclone damage of coastal residential buildings, addresses the modelling techniques of cyclone stochastic process, and discusses the impacts of cyclone non-stationarity, temporal correlation and vulnerability model uncertainty on cyclone damage.
Dr Hao Zhang is an Associate Professor in the School of Civil Engineering at the University of Sydney. He obtained his BE and ME degrees in 1998 and 2001, respectively, from Tsinghua University. At Georgia Institute of Technology, he completed his PhD degree in Civil Engineering in 2005. He has served on the faculty of the School of Civil Engineering at the University of Sydney since 2008. His primary research interests lie in structural reliability theory, uncertainty modelling in structural engineering, risk-informed hazard mitigation, and advanced analysis and design of steel structures. His research has been strongly supported by external research funding from Australian Research Council Discovery Projects and Linkage Projects, totalling more than AUD$2 million since 2010.